Thursday, April 10, 2008 ; 12:02 AMY
Confessions of a self-proclaimed princess
hey guys............
ws reading xiaxue's blog. she blog abt tis puzzle w the ans n tried to xplaind the logic behind it cs the ans wsnt realli crystal clear.
aniway, it goes lyk tis...............
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat.He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2 instead?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?initally, i ws dead set i wudnt chang cs the chances seem 50/50 n i wud die if i had known i'd switch a car w a goat.
bt thers a twist....................
we shud
switch, because switching gives you a 2/3 chance of getting a car, vs a 1/3 chance if you stick to ur choice.
i didt gt it...............
so i wikipedia-ed it.
then, thers tis freaking page abt probability.
n im never gd wif probability n its been eons since i even touch on the topic probability, thus, i didnt understand crap!
so aft a gd 5 mins of trying to comprehend the solution, kol realli smart people n yani ws so kind to even jot down the puzzle n the ans.
i tot i cud wait n hang for yani's xplanatn, bt i ws too distracted!!!! i had to at least try!
so aft scribbling short-hand, long-hand, diagrams, arrows,
i finally gt it!!!! whee!!!
im not the smart ppl who toks probability, bt im a logic kind of person................
so let me tell u logically.................
the chances of u picking a goat is higher
(2/3) than picking the car
(1/3). so,
logically, u wud hav pickd a goat.
so wen a goat has been reveald to u , u wud b left wif 1 goat n a car.
logically, u wud hav pickd the goat.so since
logically, u wud hav pickd a goat in the 1st place n the car is the other option,
u shud
switch.
gt it?
